The following is an excerpt from Yoshiko Sakurai's serialized column that appears at the end of today's issue of Weekly Shincho.
This paper also proves that she is the supreme national treasure, as defined by Saicho.
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but also for people worldwide.
The threat of China's new nuclear strategy looms over our country
An analysis of China's military situation by the think tank "National Institute for Basic Issues" has revealed that China has fundamentally changed its nuclear strategy.
What this means is that a significant change in the balance of power in the international community, namely in U.S.-China relations, is now inevitable.
It also means that a chilling structural change in security is beginning for a country like Japan, which relies on the so-called extended deterrence strategy under the protection of the U.S. nuclear umbrella.
In the 2019 edition of its National Defense White Paper, China defined its nuclear strategy as one of self-defense and protection and presented three specific policies.
(1) Under no circumstances will China use nuclear weapons first,
(2) China will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries or regions, and
(3) China will maintain its nuclear capability at the minimum level necessary for national security.
The international community has called China's nuclear strategy a "minimum deterrence strategy."
As clearly stated in the Chinese Defense White Paper, the characteristic of this strategy is that China possesses nuclear weapons as a deterrent to defend itself against atomic attacks or nuclear threats from other countries.
For this reason, it has been interpreted that China has a minimum number of nuclear weapons and has declared that it will not use nuclear weapons first.
The fact that the People's Liberation Army (PLA) had for many years kept its nuclear warheads and the missiles that carried them in separate locations was also interpreted as showing its emphasis on nuclear safety and its prudence regarding the use of atomic weapons.
It has clearly changed.
On the front line of the PLA, nuclear weapons and missiles have begun to be deployed in the same location.
In May 2004, I reported in this column that the PLA's nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) was loaded with missiles and nuclear warheads and that China's nuclear strategy had begun to change, at least from this time.
The change in China's nuclear strategy clearly surfaced in July this year.
On the 28th, China strongly opposed the move when Japan and the U.S. held their first expanded deterrence ministerial meeting along with the foreign and defense ministers' meeting (2+2).
They summoned the Japanese ambassador to the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Mr. Akira Yokochi.
They warned Japan to stop allying with "some countries" to oppose China and to move in the same direction as China.
In 1935, 1,500 rounds
Of particular note were the remarks made by a Chinese Ministry of National Defense spokesman.
He said that Japan was pursuing nuclear deterrence by the United States and that it was increasing its capabilities for nuclear proliferation and nuclear conflict.
He also said that nuclear weapons would threaten no nation from China unless it used or threatened to use nuclear weapons against China. Kiyofumi Iwata, former Chief of Staff of the Ground Self-Defense Force, explained the meaning of this statement.
"The real meaning of this statement is that if China judges that Japan is using U.S. nuclear weapons as a threat to China through the Japan-US alliance, then Japan will be seen as being on the same level as nuclear powers. In other words, the standard set out in point 2 of China's 2019 National Defense White Paper, "We will not use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-nuclear countries or regions unconditionally," may no longer apply to Japan."
China's change in strategy toward Japan is naturally inextricably linked to its nuclear strategy toward the United States.
Until now, China has possessed nuclear weapons as a minimum deterrent, but it is probably correct to say that it has abandoned this stance and begun to adopt the atomic strategy and mutually assured destruction strategy that existed between the U.S. and the Soviet Union in the past.
Specifically, China will accelerate the deployment of intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) with multiple warheads to strengthen its ability to attack the nuclear forces deployed on the U.S. mainland.
We must also expect China to accelerate the development of new long-range anti-ship ballistic missiles and the new hypersonic glide missile (DF-27), for which the U.S. still needs to establish a countermeasure.
In other words, we should expect China to enhance its nuclear capabilities further to carry out its atomic blackmail policy, including the use of nuclear weapons first.
China's attitude towards Japan is cold and unyielding.
Our country must not underestimate this.
The background to China's change to a more aggressive nuclear strategy is the movement in recent years to increase the number of nuclear warheads at a tremendous pace.
China's nuclear warheads had hardly increased until 2015, but after 2015, they began to increase rapidly, and in 2019 and 2023, they began to increase at a different rate.
It is now estimated that China will have 500 nuclear warheads, 700 by 2027, and 1500 by 2035.
Usually, nuclear forces are made up of three pillars: (1) missiles deployed on land, (2) missiles deployed on submarines, and (3) missiles deployed on bombers.
In the case of China, the main force is (1) missiles deployed on land.
It is supplemented by submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) that dive deep into the ocean (No. 2).
The nuclear attack capability of No. 3 bombers is thought to be still under development.
Analysis of satellite images is the key to understanding the situation regarding China's ground-based missiles.
The National Institute for Defense Studies' image analysis has revealed a frightening situation for Japan.
Missiles targeted at Japan
The DF-21A and DF-21E were Chinese missiles targeted at Japan.
The British military journal "Military Balance" reported that China had 23 and 40 missiles, respectively.
Now, however, the number has dropped to zero.
They were likely decommissioned due to aging and replaced with new missiles.
The new missiles that have appeared are the DF-26 and DF-17.
The DF-26 ranges from 3,000 to 4,000 km and can reach Guam, so it is called the Guam Killer.
The first feature of the DF-26 is that it can switch between carrying conventional and nuclear warheads and vice versa.
It is one of many things that can be analyzed from satellite images.
The training status of each brigade shows that they are responsible for both nuclear and non-nuclear missions.
For example, it can be seen that they are constantly alternating between combat readiness and high alert.
Furthermore, it was confirmed that during frontline operations, they are also trained to exchange nuclear warheads and conventional warheads quickly.
The right training, which experts call hot swapping, is being carried out regarding the DF-26, which means that China's policy of storing missiles and nuclear warheads separately no longer exists.
It should also be remembered that some DF-26 brigades already have some nuclear warheads loaded on their missiles at all times, maintaining a state of readiness.
Another missile aimed at Japan, the DF-17, is a hypersonic glide missile.
It is currently equipped with a conventional warhead, but it is thought that it will be technically upgraded in the future to be capable of carrying a nuclear warhead.
China is currently expanding the deployment of the DF-17.
As mentioned above, the U.S. has no means of intercepting this missile.
When China is confident that it has reached parity with the U.S. regarding nuclear capability, its foreign policy will be far more aggressive than it is now.
It will be a policy of changing the status quo by force.
We must be prepared for this, strengthen our national power, and make cooperation with the United States a fundamental part of our national interests, making it something that actually works.
The Liberal Democratic Party presidential election is in full swing.
Do the candidates have a clear understanding of the current situation?
I ask them if they are aware of the threat from China.
2024/9/26 in Umeda
