The following is from an article by Taishi Sugiyama, Research Director of the Canon Institute for Global Studies.
It appeared in today's Sankei Shimbun under "Don't Let Japan Kill Itself with the Basic Energy Plan."
It is a must-read not only for the Japanese people but for people worldwide.
Emphasis in the text other than the headline is mine.
The geopolitical situation surrounding Japan is grave.
In the Seventh Basic Energy Plan, we must focus on security and the economy.
The economy is important because it is the foundation of national security.
The Great Exodus of Japanese and European Industry
Under the Paris Agreement based on the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, each country must submit a 35-year C0₂ numerical target by February 2025.
The Japanese government will begin reviewing the 7th Basic Energy Plan, and it seems that the government's idea is to submit a C0₂ target consistent with the plan.
But this is extremely dangerous because the market price in international negotiations has jumped.
At COP28 at the end of last year, a 60% reduction (compared to 19 years) was set for the entire world in 35 years.
To meet this target would be tantamount to a death sentence for the industry.
Already, industries are fleeing the E.U. and Japan, where C0₂ regulations are being tightened unnecessarily.
Germany's chemical industry will reduce domestic production, while its largest company, BASF, will invest 1 billion euros to build a factory in China.
Japan's steel industry is also closing domestic plants while building blast furnaces in India and acquiring U.S. steel companies.
When the government subsidizes some companies to attract them, the funds will return to other companies as additional costs.
We cannot keep countless companies from the Great Escape.
As a nation, we are doomed to exist.
The End of Global Decarbonization
The E.U. and the U.S. have had governments promoting left-leaning policies for the past few years.
But here, public outrage has erupted over unbridled immigration.
Next, the decarbonization policies have been met with resentment as the burden on the public from the mandatory use of electric vehicles and the introduction of renewable energy has become increasingly apparent.
The U.S. will withdraw from the Paris Agreement and repeal the Green Deal (meaning decarbonization) if a Republican president, whether Trump or anyone else, will be elected later this year.
In the E.U., the right-wing has been winning every national election and will make a breakthrough in the European Parliament elections this June.
As for the Global South, it flatly rejected the G7's call for "2050 decarbonization" at the COP late last year.
The Paris Agreement is a complete dead end; only developed countries stick to the self-defeating goal.
The Biden administration in the U.S. and the German coalition government, with the Greens in the cabinet, have become increasingly radical in their environmentalism in international negotiations to please their leftist support base, even as their approval ratings are in the doldrums.
They are setting "ambitious" CO₂ targets and demanding Japan's concurrence.
But if the Republicans win the presidential election, the U.S. will change 180 degrees and reign as a fossil fuel superpower.
The E.U. will continue to die a suicide by net-zero (meaning decarbonization) policy.
But even this year, with the political shift to the right, net zero will eventually be abandoned.
Decarbonization is impossible in the Global South, the U.S., Europe, or any other country, and a rethink is inevitable.
What about Japan, on the other hand?
Legislation for decarbonization, estimated to cost 150 trillion yen over ten years, is steadily progressing.
The government's inertia is like a giant ship that cannot change direction even if an iceberg appears.
As it is, reckless C0₂ targets will be submitted in line with the Paris Agreement and allocated by sector in the 7th Energy Fund.
What will happen?
Utility costs will soar, industrial hollowing out will accelerate, and the Japanese economy will sink.
A weakened Japan, unable to compete with China's influence, will become a vassal state, and freedom of speech and politics may be restricted.
In effect, Japan will die.
The Seventh Energy Base Plan
What should be written into the 7th Energy Fund to avoid energy suicide?
The first is to reduce utility costs.
Increasing costs will damage national power and undermine national security.
Rather than temporarily providing subsidies for utility costs, fundamental efforts should be made to reduce costs through the following three measures.
First, maximize the use of nuclear energy.
The absurdity of demanding zero risk should be stopped.
The security and economic risks of not using nuclear power are significant.
Fossil fuels depend on imports, and renewable energy is unstable and expensive.
Second is the stable procurement of fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels are still the mainstay of Japan's energy supply.
The current 6th Energy Fund has been planned with a low supply volume to forcefully meet the C0₂ target, which has hindered the stable procurement of fuels.
This folly should be avoided.
Third, alternative technologies to fossil fuels should be developed.
We should refrain from a hasty introduction and expansion of renewable energy and synthetic fuels and focus on developing technologies to reduce costs.
Technological development that proves to have no prospect of cost reduction will be discontinued and returned to basic research.
Finally, the Basic Energy Plan should not allocate C0₂ emissions by sector.
Allocation based on reckless targets is a death sentence for industry and will cause the Great Escape.
As for the Paris Agreement, submitting a C0₂ target as the administration's intention is unavoidable, but the rest should be reduced to a list of measures and rendered harmless.
However, this is a bad idea; a better idea is to withdraw from this self-destructive agreement with the United States.
2024/1/17 in Kyoto
